Citi Hong Kong Releases Results of First Quarter 2020 Residential Property Ownership Survey

10% of respondents believe now is a good time to buy property, the highest percentage in nine years as respondents consider impact of COVID-19

 

HONG KONG, CHINA – Media OutReach – 18 May 2020 – Citi Hong Kong conducted a survey on the impact of COVID-19 on residential property
ownership in Hong Kong in Q1 2020, gauging
respondents’ attitude towards residential property ownership before and during COVID-19.
According
to the survey:

 

• During
  COVID-19, 52% of the respondents said they were
  very / rather uninterested in property ownership, similar to the level of
  interest recorded before COVID-19;
• During
  COVID-19, 57% of the respondents expect home
  prices to fall in the next 12 months, representing a sharp increase of 15
  percentage points from before COVID-19;
• 10%
  of the respondents considered it a perfect time to buy a home at this
  moment, the highest percentage in 9 years. In contrast, more than half of
  the respondents did not consider it a perfect time to buy a home now, showing
  a decrease of 13 percentage points though compared with the percentage of
  respondents holding this view before COVID-19;
• Only 6.1% of property owners  were willing to sell their property at a
  10% discount or more during COVID-19

Property price
expected to be 7.5% lower by year end, with a slightly less impact than in SARS
period

 

Amid COVID-19, in March 2020, 52% of the
respondents were very / rather uninterested in purchasing a property, compared
with 17% of the respondents with a keen / rather keen interest in purchasing a
property. The figures are similar to those recorded before COVID-19, showing
little change in the interest of home purchase among the respondents amid COVID-19.

 

However, 57% of the respondents surveyed during COVID-19 expected home
prices in Hong Kong to fall in the next 12 months. This represents a sharp increase of 15
percentage points compared with the percentage seen before COVID-19 in January, reflecting an overall increase in the percentage of
respondents holding a bearish view on the property market. Benchmarked against
a 10% decline in property prices witnessed during the SARS period in 2003, the
survey collected the views of respondents on the trend of the property market amid
COVID-19. The results show that the respondents expected a median decline in
property prices of 7.5% from the beginning to the end of the current year, and
with the largest expected drop of 10%, reflecting the perception of the
COVID-19 in 2020 as having a slightly less impact on the property market than
the SARS period in 2003. However, 24% of the respondents expected their
household finances to worsen in the coming year, doubled the number of respondents holding this view compared
with the same period of the previous year.

 

Despite the bearish view on the property market and the fact that more
than half of the respondents in the January and March 2020 surveys considered it
a bad / terrible time to purchase a home at this moment, the number of
respondents sharing this view during COVID-19 in March fell by 13 percentage
points compared with the figure recorded in January before COVID-19. This
compares with 10% of the respondents who considered now a good / excellent time
to purchase a home, up 100% from the figure seen before COVID-19 and representing
the highest percentage in 9 years of respondents holding this view.

 

The above results show that the respondents are looking favorably on the
timing of home purchase amid the COVID-19 global challenge, despite lingering concerns
about a fall in property prices and their finances in the future. This has
resulted in a continuation of the relatively low level of interest in property ownership.

 

If you do not own any property now, taking into consideration your current standard of living and family finances, do you think it is a good time to purchase a home now?
	Percentage of Respondents
	January 2020 (Before COVID-19)	March 2020 (During COVID-19)
A good/excellent time to purchase	5%	10%
Neutral	31%	38%
A bad/terrible time to purchase	65%	52%

 

How do you think home prices will trend in the next 12 months?
	Percentage of Respondents
	January 2020 (Before COVID-19)	March 2020 (During COVID-19)
Upward	20%	16%
Flat	39%	28%
Downward	41%	57%

 

How interested are you in purchasing a property now?
	Percentage of Respondents
	January 2020 (Before COVID-19)	March 2020 (During COVID-19)
Very/rather interested	16%	17%
Neutral	34%	31%
Very/rather uninterested	50%	52%

Base: All Respondents

Property owners remaining
calm amid COVID-19

 

In March, during COVID-19, only 6.1% of property owners were willing to
sell their property at a 10% or higher discount, reflecting a sense of calmness
amid COVID-19 situation and they were not eager to sell their property despite
the widely-held belief that property prices would fall.

 

Josephine Lee, Head of Retail Banking, Citi
Hong Kong, said, “The results show the highest percentage in 9 years of
respondents considering it a good time to buy a property now, despite a
generally low level of interest in property ownership during COVID-19 and concerns about a fall
in property prices and finances in the future. We have seen the percentage of respondents
interested in home purchase remaining stable before and during COVID-19, with existing property owners staying calm amid
COVID-19 and showing no eagerness
to sell their property at low prices, after overcoming the challenges brought
by SARS. This reflects little impact of COVID-19 on the respondents’ plans to purchase or unload a property as they
continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the prospects of the property
market. We suggest that interested homebuyers comprehensively assess their financial position
and choose a mortgage plan that best meets their needs.”

 

Citibank commissioned The University of Hong Kong Social Sciences
Research Centre to conduct the survey, interviewing a random sample of over 500
Hong Kong respondents by phone in January and March 2020 respectively. Since
2010, Citibank has been conducting quarterly surveys on the Hong Kong housing
market to assess the current state of home ownership in the SAR, gauge public
intentions towards home ownership, and track public expectations of future
housing price trends.

 

Source: Citibank Q1 2020
Residential Property Ownership Survey