El-Sayed projected to win Michigan Senate seat despite tightening race

Michigan’s Senate race was too close to call early Wednesday, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s lead narrowing as counties tallied returns, though prediction market Kalshi had already projected the former Detroit health commissioner would win.

The Michigan Senate race between El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers tightened through the night after polls closed on November 3. Audacy called the contest too close to call early Wednesday, and FOX 2 Detroit reported El-Sayed’s lead was narrowing as votes came in.

Kalshi projects a win, the count drags on

Kalshi, the prediction market, said it projects El-Sayed has won the Michigan Senate race, even as the official count remained unresolved. The Democrat held an edge over Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost his Senate bid in 2024, according to the New York Times’ live results page.

Audacy reported early Wednesday that the race remained too close to call. That’s left both campaigns waiting on late-arriving ballots in key counties. FOX 2 Detroit said the lead was shrinking, suggesting the final margin could be thin. Both NBC News and The New York Times ran live result trackers through the night as counties reported.

A doctor from Detroit against a Trump ally

El-Sayed, a physician and former public health official, served as health commissioner for the city of Detroit, appointed to rebuild the city’s health department after it was privatized during municipal bankruptcy, The Week reported. If elected, he would be the first Muslim US senator.

Rogers, a Republican and ally of Donald Trump, previously represented Michigan in the US House. He ran for Senate in 2024 and lost narrowly, the New York Times noted. His campaign leaned on his ties to the former president and his congressional record.

CNN-News18 described the contest as high-stakes, with the outcome potentially influencing the balance of power in the upper chamber. For voters in Michigan, the race was the headline item on a November 3 ballot that also included governor and House contests, the Times of India noted.

What the Michigan race means for Senate control

The Michigan contest is part of a midterm evening where Democrats were flipping Republican-held seats in several states. Democrat Annie Andrews flipped a Republican seat in South Carolina, the Times of India reported. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton, turning a Senate seat blue, Hindustan Times reported. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson defeated Susan Collins, News18 reported.

Polling stations closed at staggered times across the US on November 3, Outlook India reported, and several Senate races were decided before Michigan’s count finished. Those results, if confirmed, would erode the Republican majority in the Senate, giving the Michigan race’s final margin outsized weight. The wider midterm results will decide whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats manage to take back one or both chambers, News18 said.

Bhatkal follows its son-in-law

In India, the coastal town of Bhatkal in Karnataka is watching the race closely. El-Sayed’s wife, Sarah, comes from the town, Firstpost reported, giving the small community a personal stake in the US midterms.

For Bhatkal residents, the Senate race is also about representation: a win would put the first Muslim American in the US Senate. The town is tracking the returns carefully, Firstpost said.

With the count still running, El-Sayed’s status as the first Muslim senator is not yet official. But Kalshi’s projection and the early returns point to a Democratic lead, even if the final margin looks set to be tight.