The packages provided by the Government of India have been welcomed by MSMEs and other businesses with open arms, but more is needed in terms of planning the implementation of distribution of packages with strong data-backed suggestions, says a report from Sapio Umbrella, a unit of government advisory firm Sapio Analytics.
A previous white paper by Sapio Analytics, that was submitted to the Government of India, recommended a package of INR 14.88 lac crores, to bring India at par with the previously expected numbers for last year, by the end of this financial year. Its current evaluation of the first set of packages announced by the Finance Minister today shows a need of higher injection in the relief package, which should be planned across sectors that can push India towards the target of becoming Atmanirbhar Bharat.
“It’s extremely difficult to make logically robust projections in this ever changing world. We applaud the steps by the government especially for the MSMEs, and await the next set of reforms. Based on an evaluation of each of the reforms suggested till date and an analysis of its implementation process, the effective realizable size of package is around INR 7.5 lac crores. This realizability can be improved with better implementation that needs to be designed with precision while getting into the details using strong backing from data, that can further simplify the execution,” says the report provided by the body soon after the announcements by the Ministry of Finance.
The methodology used to arrive at the said figure takes into account current and future needs of the sectors that have been supported with the relief, effectiveness in timeliness of implementation considering practical challenges in the same, expected use of reliefs by MSME sectors within the defined boundaries, and weighted percentage of people and industries expected to use the benefit from the provided relief packages.
The Economic Advisory team of Sapio working on this report includes Sanjeeva Shivesh, a former civil servant and angel investor, and Dr. Jyotishree Pandey, an economist with a degree in data analytics.
Sapio Analytics is providing decision support to various governments in India, during these uncertain times of crisis. It has previously advocated use of a RT-PCR based pooled testing that is now adopted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. It has also conceptualized Granular Lockdown Plan, a plan that is in use and consideration across different governments in India.
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