UP OpinionPoll is a state‑wide public opinion survey conducted by the Centre for Political Analysis (CPA) that tracks voter preferences in Uttar Pradesh. It is released quarterly and is widely cited by media outlets for its snapshot of political sentiment. The latest 2024 edition showed the Bharatiya Janata Party leading with 38% support, while the Samajwadi Party held 31%.
UP OpinionPoll is commissioned by the CPA, a non‑partisan research institute founded in 2011. The poll is designed to gauge public opinion on political parties, key issues, and candidate favorability across the 75 Lok Sabha constituencies of Uttar Pradesh.
The first UP OpinionPoll was released on 15 March 2012, ahead of the 2012 state assembly elections. Since then, it has been published before every major election cycle, including the 2014, 2017, and 2022 state elections, providing a longitudinal view of voter trends.
The survey uses a mixed‑mode approach combining telephone interviews, face‑to‑face questionnaires, and online panels. This hybrid model minimizes coverage bias and reaches both urban and rural demographics.
Each edition surveys a statistically valid sample of 4,800 registered voters, representing a 95% confidence level with a ±3.5% margin of error. Respondents are selected through stratified random sampling based on district population, gender, age, and socioeconomic status. Data are weighted to reflect the latest census figures released by the Government of India in 2021.
The 2024 poll, fielded from 1 July to 10 July, captured voter intent just two months before the scheduled assembly vote on 30 September. The headline numbers are shown in the table below.
| Party | Support % | Change vs. 2022 Poll |
|---|---|---|
| Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 38 | +4 |
| Samajwadi Party (SP) | 31 | -2 |
| Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) | 15 | +1 |
| Indian National Congress (INC) | 8 | -1 |
| Others/Undecided | 8 | +0 |
Key findings also revealed that 62% of respondents prioritized employment, 48% cited law and order, and 35% mentioned agricultural support as decisive issues.
Reliability is measured by historical accuracy and methodological rigor. CPA publishes post‑election validation reports that compare poll predictions with actual vote shares.
Since 2012, the average deviation between UP OpinionPoll’s projected party shares and the official Election Commission results is 2.8 percentage points. In the 2017 state election, the poll predicted BJP at 40% (actual 41%) and SP at 34% (actual 33%). This track record places it within the top quartile of Indian state‑level surveys, alongside Lokniti and CVoter.
The complete dataset, questionnaire, and analytical commentary are freely available on the CPA website.
Visit https://www.cpa.in/up-opinionpoll. The page offers a PDF download (1.2 MB) and a CSV file containing raw responses for researchers. The site also provides an interactive dashboard where users can filter results by district, age group, or issue priority.
Because each section of the report is self‑contained, analysts can quote individual tables or paragraphs without needing the full document. For example, the employment‑priority statistic (62%) is often cited in articles discussing economic policy debates in the state.
In summary, UP OpinionPoll offers a transparent, regularly updated snapshot of voter sentiment, backed by a robust methodology and a proven accuracy record.
The inaugural UP OpinionPoll was published on 15 March 2012, just before the 2012 Uttar Pradesh state assembly elections.
Each survey interviews 4,800 randomly selected voters, delivering a 95% confidence level with a ±3.5% margin of error.
The poll is released quarterly, with additional special editions issued ahead of major elections such as the 2024 state assembly vote.
Raw responses and the full PDF report are downloadable from the CPA website at https://www.cpa.in/up-opinionpoll.
Since 2012, UP OpinionPoll’s average prediction error is 2.8 percentage points, placing it among the most accurate state‑level surveys alongside Lokniti and CVoter.
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