Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab: Forecast, Impact and Safety Measures

Cyclone Arnab is projected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm, with landfall on the Andhra Pradesh‑Odisha coastline expected around October 28, and its remnants may bring intense rainfall to northern India and Nepal.

What is the current forecast for Cyclone Arnab?

According to multiple news outlets, the system that began as Cyclone Arnab is now expected to reach “very severe” intensity by the next day. The Hindu reports that Arnab is “hurtling towards the Andhra Pradesh coast,” while News On AIR says it is “likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm by tomorrow.” Down To Earth adds that the cyclone may turn very severe, indicating a rapid strengthening trend as it approaches land.

Which Indian states are under alert and why?

Why are Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on high alert?

Both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have been placed under alert as the storm approaches. NDTV notes that the two states are on alert as a “Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab” draws near, and Livemint confirms that red alerts have been issued for both states. The alerts reflect the expected wind speeds, heavy rain, and storm surge associated with a very severe cyclonic storm, which can cause coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and disruption of transportation.

When is landfall expected?

Livemint’s tracker indicates that landfall is likely on October 28. This date aligns with the forecast timeline that suggests the storm will reach peak intensity and make contact with the coastline within a 24‑hour window after the “very severe” classification is confirmed.

What could be the impact on northern India and Nepal?

Down To Earth warns that the remnants of Cyclone Arnab could bring “intense rainfall” to northern India and Nepal. While the core of the storm is expected to make landfall on the eastern coast, the system’s moisture can travel inland, leading to heavy downpours that may trigger flash floods and landslides in the Himalayan foothills and the Indo‑Gangetic plains.

How are cyclones classified in the North Indian Ocean?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a five‑tier scale: Depression, Deep Depression, Cyclonic Storm, Severe Cyclonic Storm, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, and Super Cyclonic Storm. A “very severe cyclonic storm” like Arnab carries sustained wind speeds of 64–89 knots (118–166 km/h), a level that can cause extensive structural damage and severe coastal erosion.

How can residents prepare for a very severe cyclonic storm?

Authorities in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have issued safety advisories. Residents can follow these steps to reduce risk:

• Secure loose objects and reinforce windows and doors.
• Stock essential supplies (water, non‑perishable food, medicines) for at least three days.
• Stay informed through official weather bulletins and heed evacuation orders promptly.
• Identify safe shelters in your community and plan travel routes in advance.
• Keep mobile phones charged and have a backup power source.

Quick reference: Alerts and expected intensity

What is the broader context for this storm?

The 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has seen several systems intensify rapidly in October, a month when sea surface temperatures remain warm enough to fuel storms. Cyclone Arnab follows this pattern, and its projected path along the eastern coastline mirrors previous severe events that have caused significant economic loss and loss of life. Understanding the forecast, alerts, and preparation steps is essential for minimizing impact.

Historical comparisons: How does Arnarn stack up?

When looking at the last decade of cyclones that have struck the Andhra Pradesh‑Odisha corridor, several notable storms provide a benchmark for Arnab’s potential severity. In 2019, Cyclone Fani made landfall as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, delivering sustained winds of 120 km/h and causing over ₹15 billion in damages. Similarly, Cyclone Bulbul in 2020 intensified rapidly before hitting the coast as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, resulting in extensive flooding and power outages across the region. Compared with these events, Arnab’s projected wind speeds (118‑166 km/h) place it squarely in the “very severe” category, suggesting that its destructive potential could rival Fani, especially if the storm surge coincides with high tide.

Potential economic impact

The coastal economies of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha rely heavily on agriculture, aquaculture, and tourism. A storm of Arnab’s intensity can disrupt planting cycles, damage paddy fields, and inundate shrimp farms, leading to immediate losses estimated at several hundred million rupees. Moreover, ports such as Visakhapatnam and Paradip are critical nodes for freight movement; disruptions can cascade into supply‑chain delays for industries across the country. Preliminary assessments by the Ministry of Disaster Management indicate that if Arnab’s storm surge exceeds 3 meters, coastal infrastructure repair costs could surpass ₹10 billion, underscoring the need for swift pre‑emptive measures.

Environmental concerns

Beyond human hardship, Arnab may trigger ecological disturbances. Heavy rainfall can cause runoff laden with pesticides and fertilizers to enter the Bay of Bengal, affecting marine life and coral reefs. In the Himalayan foothills of northern India and Nepal, the storm’s remnants are expected to raise river levels, heightening the risk of landslides that could destabilise fragile forest ecosystems. Monitoring agencies are urging communities to report any sudden changes in water quality to mitigate long‑term environmental damage.

Emergency response coordination

The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has pre‑positioned rescue teams and inflatable boats along the anticipated impact zone. State disaster management authorities are conducting joint drills with the Indian Navy and Coast Guard to ensure rapid evacuation of vulnerable coastal villages. Additionally, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a “yellow” advisory for neighboring states, urging them to ready flood‑control measures as the system’s moisture migrates inland.

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)

• Will the storm affect air travel? Major airports in Visakhapatnam and Bhubaneswar have announced possible flight delays or cancellations on October 28‑29.
• How long will heavy rains persist in northern India? Forecast models suggest that the remnants will linger for 2‑3 days, with peak rainfall expected on October 30.
• What resources are available for displaced residents? Temporary shelters equipped with basic amenities are being set up in schools and community halls; relief kits are being distributed by the State Relief Fund.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is Cyclone Arnab expected to make landfall?

Landfall is likely on October 28 along the Andhra Pradesh‑Odisha coastline, according to the Livemint tracker.

What intensity is Cyclone Arnab forecast to reach?

Multiple sources say Arnab is expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm, which means sustained winds of 64–89 knots.

Which areas are under red alert because of the storm?

Both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have been placed under red alerts as the very severe cyclonic storm approaches.

Will the storm affect regions beyond the coast?

Yes. Down To Earth reports that the storm’s remnants could bring intense rainfall to northern India and Nepal.

What safety measures should residents take?

Residents should secure homes, stock essential supplies, follow official bulletins, know evacuation routes, and keep phones charged, as recommended by local authorities.