Forex Factory weekly: Iran offers Hormuz reopening while US manufacturing and construction data split

Forex Factory’s feed opened the week with a condition from Tehran: if the United States accepts Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and negotiations will resume, Iran’s Araghchi told IRNA. The statement mattered because it tied a diplomatic step directly to a chokepoint used by seaborne oil trade.

Iranian state media reported the same day that President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has given the government “specific, carefully defined authority” to manage talks with Washington. Forex Factory also carried a report that US national debt has passed $40 trillion, with persistent deficits putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates; the economists cited include Natasha Sarin of the Yale Budget Lab.

US data split: PMI 55.5, construction down 1.9%

The US manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5% for October 2026, with economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding for a 10th consecutive month, the nation’s supply executives said in the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report.

A separate US manufacturing assessment said the sector continued to expand markedly in October, albeit at a slightly softer degree. Output and new orders kept rising, though headwinds remained. Employment rose sharply while inflationary pressures intensified.

Construction moved the other way. Spending came to $2.18 trillion in September, down 1.9% from August’s revised $2.22 trillion estimate, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday.

Germany and Spain move in different directions

German retail sales in September 2026 were 2.0% lower in real terms than in the previous month and 1.5% lower in nominal terms, according to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical Office, Destatis.

Spain showed the opposite tilt in industry. Its manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in over a year during October, with operating conditions improving as production was raised and new work grew modestly on demand.

Forex Factory also listed the RBA Index of Commodity Prices for October 2026, though the alert gave no index figure.

Yen longs and euro shorts hit extremes

A COT report carried on Forex Factory showed yen bulls loaded up into the Bank of Japan as euro shorts hit an 11-year extreme.

The market-tone note “What a Difference the Weekend Made” said resilience returned after a weaker close to the prior week. Questions over the “Ai-meme” trade, which had driven the semiconductor index down 7.2%, eased.

The feed also carried an industry milestone: OneRoyal marked 20 years with an exclusive two-day anniversary event in Istanbul honouring valued partners and clients.

The open question left by these items is whether Washington accepts Araghchi’s conditions; the Hormuz measure is tied to that answer.