News

South Korean trade outlook remains stable despite short-term trade volatility

  • Ocean trade surpasses air trade for Basic Raw
    Materials and Chemical Products
  • The
    country with the highest growth prospect in 2018 will build on domestic demand
    and materials exports to sustain trade over the next quarter

 

SEOUL,
KOREA - Media OutReach - 
8 April 2019 - South
Korea's ocean trade is set to surpass its air trade over the next three months,
keeping the country's trade volumes stable amidst short-term volatility,
according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the
world's leading logistics company.

 

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, revealed that South Korea's trade outlook is set to decelerate to
49 points, below the threshold of 50 which indicates growth. Air imports,
however, will be sustained by domestic demand for Machinery Parts and
Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods, while air exports will maintain a
strong foundation thanks to overseas demand for Basic Raw Materials. The
outlook is more positive for ocean shipments, where trade in Basic Raw
Materials remains robust while imports of Personal & Household Goods are
forecasted to flourish.

 

"With semiconductor prices falling and South
Korea's GDP growth steadying to 2.5% this year,[1]
the results of this quarter's index are not unexpected," said SP Song, Managing
Director, DHL Global Forwarding Korea. "However, losses in semiconductor and
components manufacturing have been offset by gains in industries like game
makers, cosmetics firms, and retailers, with South Korean stocks recently
rebounding amidst lingering growth concerns.[2]
This suggests that pessimism surrounding the country's economic situation may
have prematurely assumed the worst, with the macro factors dampening South
Korea's trade balances also unlikely to extend beyond the short term."

 

The Barometer's results also suggest that global
trade growth looks set to slow down over the next three months, signaling only
a slight growth. However, the top three nations with the highest indexes are all
in Asia, namely India, Japan, and China. Indices for all seven countries that
constitute the Global Trade Barometer index -- including the US, UK and Germany
-- are above 50 points except for South Korea. In the Global Trade Barometer
methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values
below 50 indicate contraction.

 

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. In order to make
this valuable data accessible for academic research and to increase the
macroeconomic significance of the indicator, DHL recently entered into research
cooperation with Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy and Economics at
Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. The indicator is published four times a
year and the next release date is scheduled for June 2019.

 

You can find the press release for download as
well as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases

 

On
the Internet: dpdhl.de/press

Follow us at: twitter.com/DeutschePostDHL



[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-25/korea-is-seen-needing-9-billion-extra-budget-to-prop-up-economy

[2] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190326009551320?section=news

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